Encontro de Energia no Meio Rural

Abstract

CAMPELO, R.C, SANTOS, H. P. A, COSTA, G. B et al. Análise de risco envolvido no projeto de cogeração de energia à gás natural utilizando o método Monte Carlo de simulação estocástica. In Procedings of the 4th Encontro de Energia no Meio Rural, 2002, Campinas (SP) [online]. 2002 [cited 23 April 2024]. Available from: <http://www.proceedings.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=MSC0000000022002000100014&lng=en&nrm=iso> .

In view of the present day proven importance of the cogeneration and its benefits in large-scale, this work deals with the application of the Monte Carlo method to the analysis of risk of systems of cogeneration in small scale. The cogeneration systems foresee the simultaneous use of the mechanical and thermal energy proceeding from an only primary energy fonts. Using an engine of internal combustion running with the natural gas, the produced thermal energy will be used to advantage to generate steam, this can used in diverse aplications. Initially, the synthesis of the project was realized, the mass and energy balance was carried out and, with aid of computer programs that they make regressions and simulations, the equipments size were specified, being certain, also, the function profit for the process. Later, the analysis economical risk was accomplished, being varied the conditions of operation of the motor-generator that for consequence alters the matter consumption it excels and of products. The stochastic simulation was developed being used electronic spreadsheet based on methods of uncertainty distribution and the software @Risk, simulator Monte Carlo. The results of this work show that the probability of obtaining profit in that process is me I turn of 30%.

Keywords : Cogeração; Simulação; Monte Carlo; Geração de vapor.