Encontro de Energia no Meio Rural

Abstract

SCARAMUCCI, José A., BORDONI, Orlando F. J. G. and CUNHA, Marcelo P. O mercado de combustíveis líquidos em um cenário de escassez de petróleo: uma análise econômica exploratória para o Brasil.. In: ENCONTRO DE ENERGIA NO MEIO RURAL, 5., 2004, Campinas. Proceedings online... Available from: <http://www.proceedings.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=MSC0000000022004000200027&lng=en&nrm=abn>. Acess on: 27 Apr. 2024.

The objective of this paper is to discuss the possible impacts on the Brazilian economy of an oil shortage crisis and its effects on the domestic market for liquid fuels. The results were obtained from simulations using a multi-sector general equilibrium model. The scenarios used in the numerical experiments were characterized by different constraining levels in imports of crude oil and oil products and also by the ability gasoline may be substituted by fuel ethanol. It is shown that the economic effects depend to a large degree on the substitution flexibility between liquid fuels. Thus it is expected that the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles in the light-duty fleet will make the Brazilian economy much less vulnerable in the event of an external oil-supply shock.

Keywords : Modelos econômicos; equilíbrio geral; mercado de combustíveis líquidos; petróleo; álcool combustível; veículos bicombustíveis.