Encontro de Energia no Meio Rural

Resumen

UDAETA, Miguel Edgar Morales, INO, William Takanori, GRIMONI, José Aquiles Baeso et al. Proposição para o interior Paulista do Planejamento Integrado de Recursos. In Anales del 5º Encontro de Energia no Meio Rural, 2004, Campinas (SP) [online]. 2004 [citado 28 Abril 2024]. Disponible en: <http://www.proceedings.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=MSC0000000022004000200040&lng=es&nrm=iso> .

The present work has in view the elaboration of projections based on IRP (Integrated Energy Resources Planning) in order to propose an alternative of sustainable development to one region of the State of Sao Paulo. Using the data of the region, gathered in the past years by several researches of the GEPEA-USP, scenarios of the development and consume of energy have been created. In these scenarios, two possibilities to supply the demand of the region were considered: energy of clean sources and/or renewable as well as energy of sources that have lower costs. In order to simulate the behavior of several factors of the offer and demand, the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) has been used. Both scenarios have vantages and disadvantages, but the clean sources scenario certainly could supply the needs of the region for the next twenty years. Uncertainties in longer periods make the forecasts no much reliable, because changes in both, demand and offer, could invalidate the study. The best is an accompaniment of the sector's behavior in order to make shorter projections, ten years for example, to set the generator estate and policies of consumption. Long forecasts are good to show the limits of the system and the reserve to preview emergency situations as occurred in 2001 with shortness of water supply and consequently broke of energy catering.