Encontro de Energia no Meio Rural Agrener
DEMANBORO, Antonio Carlos, MARIOTONI, Carlos Alberto, NATURESA, Jim Silva et al. Cenários para a agricultura mundial e o programa brasileiro de biocombustíveis. In Proceedings of the 6. Encontro de Energia no Meio Rural, 2006, Campinas (SP, Brazil) [online]. 2006 [cited 19 May 2013]. Available from: <http://www.proceedings.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=MSC0000000022006000100038&lng=en&nrm=iso> .
Three denominated sceneries are elaborated 'tendency'; 'sustainable development' and 'equilibrium'. In the scenery ' tendency' tries to show how they will be mischievous to the limit the serious subjects environmental, economical and social, in the case of the current tendencies be maintained. The level of conscience of the population, companies and governments with relationship the gravity of the current environmental problems and futures are not altered. In the scenery 'sustainable development' changes economical, ecological and social are introduced, seeking to reach the sustainable development in long term. There is a slow change of the current economical paradigm for the economical ' sustainable', and also in the level of conscience of the population. The competitive paradigm gives up place slowly for the one of community cooperation. Some technological of the type ' end of pipe' and the substitution of dangerous technologies to the environment are introduced. In the scenery 'equilibrium' deep changes they are proposed in the man's relationship with the nature and of the man with him own. The current economical paradigm is altered for the one of state stable, medium term. The level of conscience of the population increases strongly, carting the decrease of wastes, taking the demand of products with larger durability and reparability, and of agricultural products without toxic polutants. The competitive paradigm is altered for the one of community cooperation. The main conclusion is that it is necessary to do a strategic evaluation of the brazilian bio-fuels program.
Keywords : Agricultura; energia; planejamento; biocombustíveis.