Encontro de Energia no Meio Rural Agrener
LEITE, Alvaro Afonso Furtado and BAJAY, Sergio Valdir. Projeção do consumo de energia elétrica do setor agropecuário na região das bacias hidrográficas dos rios Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí. In Proceedings of the 6. Encontro de Energia no Meio Rural, 2006, Campinas (SP, Brazil) [online]. 2006 [cited 12 December 2013]. Available from: <http://www.proceedings.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=MSC0000000022006000200031&lng=en&nrm=iso> .
Electricity consumption forecasts for the rural economy in the region comprising the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai river basins are carried out in this paper up to 2025. The structural decomposition method was used in the forecasts; the variables of this method are the total energy intensity, the share of the rural economy in the local GDP, the GDP itself and the market shares of the main energy carriers consumed in that economy. It is a very flexible methodology, which easily allows associations among alternative scenarios for the local economy development and stat-wise, or nation-wise scenarios. As no complete information on energy consumption are available on a municipality-wise level, the forecasts are limited to electricity consumption, for which all the necessary input data for the adopted forecasting method were obtained. An example of aggregation of municipalities with similar characteristics in the region (economic growth) is also presented. Such type of aggregation is important to project state-wise forecasts to municipalities in the state.
Keywords : Bacia hidrográfica; planejamento energético; projeção da demanda energética.